About The Event

Are we in a global recession? Are we headed for one? How is the rest of the world faring and how does Australia compare? We gathered a large group of business leaders together to explore these questions and many more in an event hosted by Paul Bloxham, Chief Economist, Australia, New Zealand and Global Commodities at HSBC. 

Attendees had the opportunity to network with peers both before and after the interactive session, which featured a robust Q&A with Paul following his main presentation.

Date

3 April 2024

Venue

The Collider
477 Pitt Street, Sydney

Host

Paul Bloxham in partnership with Reo Group

PB Audience

THE GLOBAL OUTLOOK

  • We are not in a global recession and we are not heading for one.

  • The US is the out-performer. Demand for discretionary spend such as travel, eating out, was ahead of supply towards the tail end of the pandemic. 
  • Europe has seen inflation drop from 11% to 3.1% - but they did things differently to the US. Economies have shrunk in Germany and UK for example.
  • China has a surplus of housing due to over-building over the last decade, and a lack of demand as a result of the pandemic. The Chinese government's plan is to encourage it's population to spend more, which proves difficulty due to people's inclination to want to save.
  • India is an emerging sector. Currently 3.5% of Australia's exports go to India. Australia could benefit from diversifying trade relationships (currently predominantly US & China) into India.
  • The US Dollar remains strong. (Currently 1.52 AUD)
  • The world is shifting to region-based and protectionist economies, which may cause problems for Australia in the future.

THE DOMESTIC OUTLOOK

  • Australia has a tight labour market as a result of border closures during the pandemic.
  • This triggered wage growth, but productivity has not grown at the same rate. Productivity fell by 2% last year.
  • Interest rates will likely stay where they are this year. There is a chance of a reduction in June, but the RBA will lag behind other regions.
  • Out of OECD economies, Australia has the highest share of government revenue that comes from personal income tax, and the lowest share comes from GST.
  • Australia continues to face a housing crisis with an unclear pathway on how to fix it, due to the tight labour market. (Not enough builders to build more houses.)

ABOUT PAUL BLOXHAM

Paul Bloxham is the Chief Economist - Australia, New Zealand & Global Commodities at HSBC, and has an aim of making economics accessible and interesting, and helping to educate and inform people. He lives by the adage that if he can’t explain a concept to his mum, then he doesn't understand it well enough for it to be useful to non-economists. At HSBC, Paul manages a small research team and produces regular analytical work.

Feedback

"Great speaker, well done. Great people at Reo. Very friendly and professional. Seems like an amazing culture within the group."

Attendee

"I really liked Paul as a speaker - he has such a wealth of knowledge which he was so happy to share. I liked that he didn't mind being challenged and was open to feedback."

Attendee

"Was a really good balance of networking and speaker, well done, thanks for having me along!"

Attendee

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